Lead-Zinc Mines Undergoing Autumn Maintenance? How Significant is the Impact on Lead Concentrate Metal Reduction? [SMM Analysis]

According to SMM survey data, as of October, many lead-zinc mines have undergone concentrated autumn maintenance, leading to a decline in lead and zinc concentrate production QoQ. SMM estimates that zinc concentrate production in October decreased by approximately 30,000-40,000 mt (metal content), and lead concentrate production decreased by approximately 5,000 mt (metal content). In addition to the QoQ decline caused by the unstable production of newly commissioned mines, several provinces in China, including Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Shaanxi, reported mine maintenance in October, with maintenance periods ranging from 10 to 20 days. The decline in beneficiation plant processing volumes is the main reason for the QoQ decline in lead-zinc mine production in October. Additionally, the decline in raw ore grade and the downward adjustment of annual plans for raw materials fed also led to a marginal decline in lead concentrate production at some mines. Although a large zinc mine in Hebei temporarily halted production due to an accident, the lead grade at this mine is relatively low, so the actual impact on lead concentrate production reduction is relatively small.

Entering November, the production of mines undergoing regular maintenance is expected to return to normal. However, as the weather turns colder, the first batch of mines in Inner Mongolia preparing to cease production mentioned that November might be their last production month. There is no clear news about the resumption of production for mines that were previously shut down due to various reasons by year-end. With these mixed changes, SMM expects that the recovery in lead concentrate production in November will be relatively limited.